Friday, August 8, 2014

Weekend Worldview: Back to Iraq.

ISIS militants (courtesy: RT.com).

Ah, Iraq, that Bush-era (forties one and three) throwback that won’t go away even after we leave it behind. The Democrats swept Congress in 2006 calling for a swift exit plan from that dusty place, and now the Democrat White House (which had the approval of 39% of the American people about a week and a half ago, according to Gallup) is sweeping over and raising dust there with a freshly authorized airstrike campaign to curb the advance of radical militants. The circle is now complete: when we left we had lessons to learn, and know we’re rushing back to make up for time lost lecturing ourselves about what we did wrong.

I’m not at all opposed to airstrikes and bombings; in fact I’m quite strongly supportive, even hoping to see the effort widened. I certainly hope the campaign works out as well as possible, too, because if there’s anything I won’t be supporting this time, it’s another large scale ground invasion. Even if the intelligence was wrong, the moral purpose behind the mission was right from the start back yonder even before 2003 (Tony Blair, who you may know is something of a leftist, has said so much himself), and I supported that mission. But something started to happen during the late Bush years, as the America began to grow weary of the conflict. We began to lose our initiative and sense of direction, it seemed, as we stretched into a long war with an ever-unconventional enemy. Talk of a victory all but disappeared, replaced with discussion of an “exit plan;” and, as Steyn would say, once you get to focusing on an exit plan, the road to victory trails off and is never found again. And no matter how much I wish things then had gone otherwise, no redeployment now can change what happened in that past. And so no more of that. Airstrikes it will be, airstrikes it will have to be.

But the long, winding, and bizarre road to this point has been a fascinating ride. In retrospect (and even out of it), Syria has to be the most perplexing stop along the way. Somewhere yesterday I heard the question asked of the White House why we hadn’t launched an air war into Syria just as we have over Iraq. ISIS (or ISIL, if you really prefer. Either way they’re still pure dark evil) is certainly active there. And thusly exposed is the entire mess that is American foreign policy: striking against ISIS in Syria, as evil as they are, blows a hole in the resistance against resurgent Syrian strongman/president Bashar al-Assad, ally of America’s enemies Iran and Russia (I don’t care what the official State Department policy is on the nomenclature here, I will call a spade a spade. And in doing so I will be following in the tradition of Mitt Romney, whom the American electorate now wish had been elected President,by a margin of 53 to 44 percent).

And of course, this little-talk-before-we-commence-to-blowing-things-up approach provides a great contrast to the apparent Syria “crisis” and ensuing humanitarian air war that never really was to be of last fall, the one that came about when the White House was called on to actually stand up and enforce the “red line” it had set in regards to chemical weapons usage by the Assad regime (a few incidents of chemical weapons being deployed and causing mass civilian deaths are horrific, yes, but apparently the White House is less offended at the massacre of even more civilians in the same place by…“conventional” means). For days and days, I remember, it dominated the talk, the updates constant; first the White House began “seriously considering” action, then a coalition of the Western powers emerged, and the President got ready to go on live TV to present the case for intervention…then, as quickly as it started, Congress started to express doubts, that coalition of western powers fell apart (with Dave Cameron particularly taking a notable stumble in the House of Commons), and Putin emerged with perfect timing to make an irrefutable peace offer rooted in an unscripted answer John Kerry gave to a reporter’s hypothetical question. By the time those TV cameras started rolling, the President settled on the wonderful idea of explaining all the reasons why we should start dropping bombs, except not really because Vlad is offering us peace in our time. In the end, as Pete Hegseth said it, the speech that ultimately became President Obama’s anti-climax for the ages all "crescendoed to 'how long do we pause.' It crescendoed to nothing." And we haven’t un-paused in Syria since.

The quagmire is thus: if you strike ISIS, you risk shifting the balance even further into Assad’s favor; strike Assad, and you not only risk empowering the wrong sort of rebel front, you anger your leading geopolitical foe, whose increasingly influential leader rivals the American President for title of “most powerful man in the world” (and makes for awkward positioning with that one Islamist power with whom you’re politely asking to let go of their nuclear ambitions). So either way, Syria is for now a no-go for American power.

The only thing left to do now is find a less politically delicate target area to try over again, and to streamline the process, skipping straight from the “seriously considering action” phase to the “authorizing action as necessary” phase, then quickly finding some “necessity” to carry out said action, all within the span of a week, before anyone has a chance to voice an outside opinion. And so, dripping with irony, the 2009 Nobel Peace Prize winner who campaigned on promises both to wind down foreign wars and to ensure that “the rise of the oceans” would begin to slow, authorized a new air campaign against radical insurgents in Iraq—in its most simple form, a conflict he vowed to leave behind.
-Mitch Carter is an Illinois State Scholar and a member of the Kendall County Young Republicans.

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