Tim Russert's call on election night 2000.
(Courtesy: NBC News).
I was intrigued by the Fox News tweet announcing the result in the special election to replace the late Rep. C.W. "Bill" Young (R) in Florida's 13th District: "BREAKING: Republican David Jolly beats Democrat Alex Sink in #Florida special election seen as #ObamaCare referendum." "Obamacare referendum?" Maybe I should have payed closer attention to this; after all, it seemed all the political world was: Bill Clinton led a charge of nationwide Democrats involving themselves with the race, and contra him was Rand Paul, whose recorded phone call may very well have swayed enough support away from the Libertarian candidate to guarantee Jolly the nearly two points he claimed victory in a race that saw nearly $11 million spent (outside money, I'm sure it wasn't).
Primary season is in full swing as we speak, and November is barely eight months away from us now, I can't help but wonder: does the nation go as does central Florida? In a district that leaned for Obama in 2012 (and Bush in 2000), where half of all votes are believed to be cast by voters over the age of 65, the possibility is very real.
That point will be predictably disputed, and with some merit. But I'd like to nonetheless think there's something more to last night's results lurking under the surface. The most recent polling had Jolly, who was outspent 3 to 1, losing by three points and on the defensive regarding his stances on entitlements; heavy Republican emphasis on Obamacare, it seems, is what pushed him through to the lead (similar late-race emphasis by Ken Cuccinelli also brought him near to becoming Governor of Virginia, though various other political circumstances ultimately proved too much).
President Obama has already offered to keep away from vital Senate races, like Arkansas and Louisiana, "where his presence would not be helpful" in the Democrat's quest to retain control of the Senate. And now, with a key district in ever-purple Florida being taken by an optically-poor lobbyist who just happens to be a "just-divorced, 41-year-old" "accompanied on the campaign trail by a girlfriend 14 years his junior,"(as per today's Playbook) with twice as many votes as the President took it by sixteen months ago, just as new polling suggests Mark Udall's Senate seat in Colorado (previously considered extremely safe) may be in play for the GOP as it expands the map for 2014, perhaps the Democrats have something even more to fear.
Primary season is in full swing as we speak, and November is barely eight months away from us now, I can't help but wonder: does the nation go as does central Florida? In a district that leaned for Obama in 2012 (and Bush in 2000), where half of all votes are believed to be cast by voters over the age of 65, the possibility is very real.
That point will be predictably disputed, and with some merit. But I'd like to nonetheless think there's something more to last night's results lurking under the surface. The most recent polling had Jolly, who was outspent 3 to 1, losing by three points and on the defensive regarding his stances on entitlements; heavy Republican emphasis on Obamacare, it seems, is what pushed him through to the lead (similar late-race emphasis by Ken Cuccinelli also brought him near to becoming Governor of Virginia, though various other political circumstances ultimately proved too much).
President Obama has already offered to keep away from vital Senate races, like Arkansas and Louisiana, "where his presence would not be helpful" in the Democrat's quest to retain control of the Senate. And now, with a key district in ever-purple Florida being taken by an optically-poor lobbyist who just happens to be a "just-divorced, 41-year-old" "accompanied on the campaign trail by a girlfriend 14 years his junior,"(as per today's Playbook) with twice as many votes as the President took it by sixteen months ago, just as new polling suggests Mark Udall's Senate seat in Colorado (previously considered extremely safe) may be in play for the GOP as it expands the map for 2014, perhaps the Democrats have something even more to fear.
-Mitch Carter is an Illinois State Scholar and an Associate Member of the Kendall County Young Republicans.
carterscornerpr@gmail.com
Twitter @CartersCornerPR
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